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美伊将如何斗法专家伊朗会让美国吞下苦果苏莱曼尼伊朗
2020-01-08 01:55   来源:  www.eoto-online.com   评论:0 点击:

美伊将如何斗法专家伊朗会让美国吞下苦果苏莱曼尼伊朗作为中止履行伊核协议的第五阶段,伊朗宣布放弃协议中

  作为中止履行伊核协议的第五阶段,伊朗宣布放弃协议中对离心机数量的限制,意味着该国的核计划从此不再受任何实际限制。但伊朗并没有正式宣布退出伊核协议,反而表示会继续与国际原子能机构合作,且所有中止履行协议的措施都可逆转。

As the fifth stage of the suspension of the iranian nuclear agreement, iran has renounced the limits on the number of centrifuges, meaning that its nuclear program is no longer subject to any practical restrictions. Instead of formally withdrawing from the deal, Iran said it would continue to work with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and that all measures to halt its implementation could be reversed.

  苏莱曼尼死后,美国驻伊拉克使馆附近和美军驻扎的巴拉德空军基地遭到炮击,但炮击没有造成任何美国人死伤,受伤的是三名伊拉克士兵。在不会直接造成人员伤亡的虚拟空间,伊朗黑客对美国政府网站发动攻击,美国当局已经提醒公共部门和私营领域准备应对伊朗的网络战。

After Suleimani's death, the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and U.S. forces stationed in the Balad air base came under artillery bombardment, but the shelling did not cause any American casualties, wounded three Iraqi soldiers. In virtual spaces that do not directly cause casualties, Iranian hackers have launched attacks on US government websites, and US authorities have alerted the public and private sectors to prepare for Iran's cyberwarfare.

  虽然没有对美国公民造成实质性伤害,伊朗复仇的誓言和其遍布中东各国的势力已经让美国神经紧绷。五角大楼决定向中东增派3000士兵;“杜鲁门”号航母抵达阿曼湾、“巴丹”号两栖攻击舰前往中东;在伊拉克的美国公民被要求撤离;华盛顿和纽约进入警戒状态。

Although no substantial harm has been done to American citizens, Iran's vow of revenge and its forces throughout the Middle East have strained America's nerves. The Pentagon decided to send 3,000 more troops to the Middle East; the USS Truman arrived in the Gulf of Oman and the Amphibious assault ship Badan went to the Middle East; American citizens in Iraq were asked to evacuate; and Washington and New York were on alert.

  此前还在为反伊朗和反政府游行苦恼的伊拉克也放出“大招”:议会投票要求外国军队撤出伊拉克。除5000多名士兵,美军在伊拉克还建有多个基地,美国总统特朗普已经威胁要对伊拉克实施制裁,要求伊拉克偿还美军基地的建造费用。

Iraq, which has been troubled by anti-iran and anti-government protests, has also made \"big moves \": parliament has voted to call for foreign troops to withdraw from iraq. In addition to more than 5,000 soldiers, U.S. troops have multiple bases in Iraq, and U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq, demanding Iraq pay back for the construction of U.S. bases.

  随着2月21日议会选举的临近,伊朗还将对美国采取哪些报复措施?伊朗的底线是什么?局势是否会失控?宁夏大学中国阿拉伯国家研究院院长李绍先为界面新闻进行解读。

What other retaliatory measures will Iran take against the United States as the February 21 parliamentary election approaches? What's the bottom line in Iran? Will the situation get out of control? Li Shaoxian, president of the Chinese Academy of Arab Studies at Ningxia University, interpreted the interface news.

  李绍先:现在伊朗的做法是表示自己不受伊核协议的约束了,但不代表伊朗退出伊核协议,因为它依然在与国际原子能机构合作。也就意味着国际原子能机构依然能跟此前一样对伊朗的核设施进行检查,并且保留所有的监控设备。

Li shaoxian: now iran's approach is to say that it is not bound by the iranian nuclear deal, but does not mean that iran is withdrawing from the iaea because it is still working with the iaea. That means the International Atomic Energy Agency will still be able to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities as well as keep all its monitoring equipment.

  除此之外,伊朗还明确,如果其他签约国兑现伊核协议的承诺,它也可以回到完全履行协议的状态。如果伊朗要退出协议,它会公开宣布,但现在不是这个情况。

On top of that, Iran has made it clear that it can return to full compliance if other signatories deliver on its nuclear deal. If Iran were to withdraw from the agreement, it would announce publicly, but this is not the case.

  如果没有苏莱曼尼的死,伊朗不会走到这一步。在苏莱曼尼遇袭之前,伊朗高层已经对伊核协议的下一步措施制定好了方案,等着在1月5日宣布。但有了遇袭事件后,伊朗高层又重新开会做出了现在这个决定。但现在的做法依然给谈判留有余地。

Without Suleimani's death, Iran would not have come this far. Prior to the attack on Suleimani, Iran's top brass had laid out a plan for the next steps in the deal, to be announced on January 5th. But after the attack, Iran's top brass met again to make the decision. But the practice still leaves room for negotiation.

  苏莱曼尼死后,虽然伊朗军方放了很多狠话,但“绿区”等地的袭击都没有造成美国人伤亡,伊朗是否在避免与美国正面冲突?

After the death of Suleimani, although the Iranian military put a lot of cruel words, but the \"Green Zone\" and other places did not cause casualties among Americans, Iran is avoiding confrontation with the United States?

  伊朗国内的反应总体可以分三个层面。一个是民众的情绪特别激烈,这也给政界施加了非常大的压力,特别现在伊朗正在面临议会选举,政客需要面对选票的问题。

The domestic response can be divided into three levels. One is that the mood is particularly intense, which puts a lot of pressure on politics, especially now that Iran is facing parliamentary elections and politicians have to face the issue of votes.

  第二个是军方,军方当然是唱高调,表态非常强硬,“让美国人尸体遍布中东”之类。军方的高调是可以理解的、符合逻辑的,军方的高调从一定程度上也可以安抚民众。

The second is the military, which, of course, is high-profile, very tough-minded,\" let the bodies of americans in the middle east \"and so on. The high profile of the military is understandable and logical, and the high profile of the military can, to some extent, appease the people.

  再一个就是最高层。虽然他们也放了狠话,但总体来讲,最高层还是保持了克制冷静。从目前情况来看,大的局势依然在高层的掌控之中;从高层整个反应来看,我不认为他们将采取可能导致战争的报复手段。在报复时也会把握尺度,比较谨慎。

Another is the highest level. Although they also put the hard words, but generally speaking, the highest level of restraint and calm. As things stand, the bigger situation is still in the upper echelons; in the overall response, I do not think they will resort to retaliatory measures that could lead to war. In retaliation will also grasp the yardstick, more cautious.

  伊朗有很多种报复手段,但不管采用什么手段,我认为总体都会遵循一个原则:既让美国很难受,但同时又让美国能够忍受,不得不吞下苦果。

Iran has a variety of retaliatory measures, but whatever they do, I think the general principle will be followed: it makes America uncomfortable, but at the same time it makes it bearable and has to swallow the bitter fruit.

  至于大家关心的以色列和霍尔木兹海峡都不会成为报复目标。攻击以色列或者封锁霍尔木兹海峡都意味着开战,这是最后的手段,伊朗不会走到这一步。

Neither Israel nor the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted for retaliation. Attacking Israel or blocking the Strait of Hormuz would mean war, a last resort that Iran would not take.

  李绍先:如果苏莱曼尼的死能够让驻伊拉克的美军撤离,或者苏莱曼尼之死激起的氛围能让美国在伊拉克的驻军越来越待不下去,那么我觉得苏莱曼尼死得值。

Mr. lee: if the death of mr. suleimani would allow u. s. troops in iraq to leave, or if the atmosphere of mr. suleimani's death would make the u. s. troops in iraq more and more vulnerable, then I think mr. suleimani's death is worth it.

  伊朗国内已经有人称,在伊拉克造成现在这个局面,是苏莱曼尼留给伊朗人民和伊朗国家安全的最后一个大礼包。

It has already been claimed in Iran that creating the present situation in Iraq is the last gift package that Suleimani left to the Iranian people and Iranian national security.

  美军现在在伊拉克待也不是、走也不是。伊拉克议会通过了投票,虽然特朗普威胁要制裁,但美国继续留在伊拉克的理由已经不成立了,从长期来看,美国待不住了。

U.S. troops are not in Iraq now, nor are they going. Iraq's parliament passed the vote, and while Trump threatened sanctions, the rationale for the United States to remain in Iraq was no longer valid and, in the long run, the United States could not stay.

  当然美国不会因为伊拉克的要求就撤军,美国也一直没有把伊拉克的主权放在眼里,美国总统前往伊拉克从不需要伊拉克元首的邀请。

Of course, the United States will not withdraw its troops because of Iraq's demands, and the United States has not taken Iraq's sovereignty seriously.

  但即使美军在伊拉克不走,今后要面对的是无穷无尽的骚扰和威胁,客观上已经造成了让美军很难再待下去的氛围。现在美国已经紧张了,在本土都加强了安保,更不用说在中东地区。

But even if the U. S. military does not leave Iraq, the future will face endless harassment and threats, objectively has created a difficult atmosphere for the U. S. military to stay. The United States is now tense, with increased security at home, not to mention in the Middle East.

  伊拉克已经成为美国和伊朗斗法的前沿战场。本来在苏莱曼尼死前,伊拉克国内已经有连续几个月的抗议游行,矛头对准的是伊朗;但现在苏莱曼尼一死,矛头开始对准美国,这相当于帮伊朗解了套。下一步围绕美军撤离的问题,还将出现一系列斗争。

Iraq has become a front-line battleground between the United States and Iran. Before Suleimani's death, there had been months of protests in Iraq that targeted Iran, but now Suleimani's death began to target the United States, which amounted to a solution for Iran. The next step will be a series of battles over the withdrawal of American troops.

  李绍先:现在欧洲非常尴尬。无论是炸死苏莱曼尼还是美国对伊朗的打压,欧洲都是倾向于美国的。但客观上,美国的这些举动也让各北约成员国处于危险境地。

Li Shaoxian: Europe is very embarrassed now. Whether it's killing Suleimani or America's crackdown on Iran, Europe is leaning toward America. But objectively, these moves also put NATO members at risk.

  北约已经停止了在伊拉克的训练,先避风头保证安全。至于北约下一步将怎么做还是取决于美国,如果美国撤军,北约其他国家军队可能在美军之前撤走。

Nato has stopped training in iraq to keep it safe. As for what NATO will do next or depending on the United States, if the United States withdraws troops, NATO's other countries may withdraw before the United States.

  在伊核协议问题上,欧洲各国与美国的利益并不完全一致。欧洲希望能保留伊核协议,如果协议废除,欧洲将直面威胁。

Europe's interests are not entirely aligned with those of the United States over the Iran nuclear deal. Europe wants to keep the deal, and if it does, it will face the threat.

  欧洲一方面倾向于美国,另一方面又想保住伊核协议,立场很尴尬。但各国能做的很少,只能靠外交手段来缓和矛盾。

Europe, on the one hand, favors the US and on the other, is embarrassed to want to keep the Iran nuclear deal. However, few countries can do anything but rely on diplomatic means to ease the conflict.

  李绍先:目前从伊朗政府来看,还没有看到失控的迹象。但苏莱曼尼的死让伊朗更多人向强硬派倾斜,如果在接下来的议会选举中,强硬派得以上台,第一步肯定是退出伊核协议。

Li Shaoxian: For now, from the Iranian government, there is no sign of losing control. But mr sulimani's death has left iran more inclined to hard-liners, whose first step must be to pull out of the nuclear deal if they come to power in the next parliamentary elections.


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