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2020-01-08 01:55   来源:  www.eoto-online.com   评论:0 点击:



As the fifth stage of the suspension of the iranian nuclear agreement, iran has renounced the limits on the number of centrifuges, meaning that its nuclear program is no longer subject to any practical restrictions. Instead of formally withdrawing from the deal, Iran said it would continue to work with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and that all measures to halt its implementation could be reversed.


After Suleimani's death, the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and U.S. forces stationed in the Balad air base came under artillery bombardment, but the shelling did not cause any American casualties, wounded three Iraqi soldiers. In virtual spaces that do not directly cause casualties, Iranian hackers have launched attacks on US government websites, and US authorities have alerted the public and private sectors to prepare for Iran's cyberwarfare.


Although no substantial harm has been done to American citizens, Iran's vow of revenge and its forces throughout the Middle East have strained America's nerves. The Pentagon decided to send 3,000 more troops to the Middle East; the USS Truman arrived in the Gulf of Oman and the Amphibious assault ship Badan went to the Middle East; American citizens in Iraq were asked to evacuate; and Washington and New York were on alert.


Iraq, which has been troubled by anti-iran and anti-government protests, has also made \"big moves \": parliament has voted to call for foreign troops to withdraw from iraq. In addition to more than 5,000 soldiers, U.S. troops have multiple bases in Iraq, and U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose sanctions on Iraq, demanding Iraq pay back for the construction of U.S. bases.


What other retaliatory measures will Iran take against the United States as the February 21 parliamentary election approaches? What's the bottom line in Iran? Will the situation get out of control? Li Shaoxian, president of the Chinese Academy of Arab Studies at Ningxia University, interpreted the interface news.


Li shaoxian: now iran's approach is to say that it is not bound by the iranian nuclear deal, but does not mean that iran is withdrawing from the iaea because it is still working with the iaea. That means the International Atomic Energy Agency will still be able to inspect Iran's nuclear facilities as well as keep all its monitoring equipment.


On top of that, Iran has made it clear that it can return to full compliance if other signatories deliver on its nuclear deal. If Iran were to withdraw from the agreement, it would announce publicly, but this is not the case.


Without Suleimani's death, Iran would not have come this far. Prior to the attack on Suleimani, Iran's top brass had laid out a plan for the next steps in the deal, to be announced on January 5th. But after the attack, Iran's top brass met again to make the decision. But the practice still leaves room for negotiation.


After the death of Suleimani, although the Iranian military put a lot of cruel words, but the \"Green Zone\" and other places did not cause casualties among Americans, Iran is avoiding confrontation with the United States?


The domestic response can be divided into three levels. One is that the mood is particularly intense, which puts a lot of pressure on politics, especially now that Iran is facing parliamentary elections and politicians have to face the issue of votes.


The second is the military, which, of course, is high-profile, very tough-minded,\" let the bodies of americans in the middle east \"and so on. The high profile of the military is understandable and logical, and the high profile of the military can, to some extent, appease the people.


Another is the highest level. Although they also put the hard words, but generally speaking, the highest level of restraint and calm. As things stand, the bigger situation is still in the upper echelons; in the overall response, I do not think they will resort to retaliatory measures that could lead to war. In retaliation will also grasp the yardstick, more cautious.


Iran has a variety of retaliatory measures, but whatever they do, I think the general principle will be followed: it makes America uncomfortable, but at the same time it makes it bearable and has to swallow the bitter fruit.


Neither Israel nor the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted for retaliation. Attacking Israel or blocking the Strait of Hormuz would mean war, a last resort that Iran would not take.


Mr. lee: if the death of mr. suleimani would allow u. s. troops in iraq to leave, or if the atmosphere of mr. suleimani's death would make the u. s. troops in iraq more and more vulnerable, then I think mr. suleimani's death is worth it.


It has already been claimed in Iran that creating the present situation in Iraq is the last gift package that Suleimani left to the Iranian people and Iranian national security.


U.S. troops are not in Iraq now, nor are they going. Iraq's parliament passed the vote, and while Trump threatened sanctions, the rationale for the United States to remain in Iraq was no longer valid and, in the long run, the United States could not stay.


Of course, the United States will not withdraw its troops because of Iraq's demands, and the United States has not taken Iraq's sovereignty seriously.


But even if the U. S. military does not leave Iraq, the future will face endless harassment and threats, objectively has created a difficult atmosphere for the U. S. military to stay. The United States is now tense, with increased security at home, not to mention in the Middle East.


Iraq has become a front-line battleground between the United States and Iran. Before Suleimani's death, there had been months of protests in Iraq that targeted Iran, but now Suleimani's death began to target the United States, which amounted to a solution for Iran. The next step will be a series of battles over the withdrawal of American troops.


Li Shaoxian: Europe is very embarrassed now. Whether it's killing Suleimani or America's crackdown on Iran, Europe is leaning toward America. But objectively, these moves also put NATO members at risk.


Nato has stopped training in iraq to keep it safe. As for what NATO will do next or depending on the United States, if the United States withdraws troops, NATO's other countries may withdraw before the United States.


Europe's interests are not entirely aligned with those of the United States over the Iran nuclear deal. Europe wants to keep the deal, and if it does, it will face the threat.


Europe, on the one hand, favors the US and on the other, is embarrassed to want to keep the Iran nuclear deal. However, few countries can do anything but rely on diplomatic means to ease the conflict.


Li Shaoxian: For now, from the Iranian government, there is no sign of losing control. But mr sulimani's death has left iran more inclined to hard-liners, whose first step must be to pull out of the nuclear deal if they come to power in the next parliamentary elections.