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中东局势升级国际金融市场面临巨震A股怎么走
2020-01-08 01:55   来源:  www.eoto-online.com   评论:0 点击:

中东局势升级国际金融市场面临巨震A股怎么走经过近两天的发酵,美伊冲突再度升级!据新华社报道,分别位于

  经过近两天的发酵,美伊冲突再度升级!据新华社报道,分别位于伊拉克首都巴格达市中心“绿区”等地和巴格达以北的美国大使馆和美军基地在当地时间4日晚遭到炮弹袭击。据央视新闻,当地时间1月5日凌晨5时许,肯尼亚一处美军联合基地遭到“青年党”袭击。

After nearly two days of fermentation, the United States and Iraq conflict escalated again! The U.S. embassy and U.S. military base, located in the \"Green Zone\" of downtown Baghdad and north of Baghdad, were shelled late on Thursday, Xinhua reported. A joint U.S. military base in Kenya was attacked by al-Shabab at 5 a.m. local time on January 5, according to CCTV news.

  美伊冲突加剧,中东紧张局势升级,全球金融市场难免受到冲击。本周全球股市、原油、黄金等大类资产将如何演绎?对A股影响几何?各大机构已火速做出分析。

The US-Iranian conflict has intensified, tensions in the Middle East have escalated and global financial markets have been hit. This week the global stock market, crude oil, gold and other major assets will be how to deduce? on the geometry of A strand? The major agencies have rushed to their analysis.

  据新华社报道,北京时间1月3日上午,伊拉克巴格达国际机场当天遭3枚火箭弹袭击,导致伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队下属“圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼身亡。美国国防部在一份声明中表示,美国总统特朗普下令实施此次针对苏莱曼尼的袭击任务。

On the morning of January 3, Iraq's Baghdad International Airport was attacked by three rockets that killed Qassim Suleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard unit, the Al-Quds Brigade, Xinhua reported. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the attack on Suleimani, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement.

  据新华社报道,伊拉克首都巴格达市中心“绿区”等地和巴格达以北一个驻有美军的基地当地时间4日晚遭到炮弹袭击,不过未造成人员伤亡。“绿区”位于巴格达市中心,是伊拉克政府机构以及美国和英国驻伊拉克大使馆所在地;拜莱德空军基地位于巴格达以北约80公里,有美军驻扎。

According to xinhua news agency, iraqi capital baghdad's \"green zone\" and other places and a base north of baghdad in the u. s. troops in the night of 4 local time was shell attack, but did not cause casualties. Located in central Baghdad, the Green Zone is home to Iraqi government agencies and the U.S. and British embassies in Iraq; the Baird Air Force Base is located about 80 kilometers north of Baghdad with U.S. troops.

  不仅如此,据央视新闻报道,当地时间1月5日凌晨5时许,位于肯尼亚东北沿海的肯尼亚美军联合基地遭遇武装分子恐怖袭击,基地附近发生爆炸以及枪战。间歇性交火一直持续到当地时间早上8时左右。肯尼亚政府称本次袭击由索马里极端组织“青年党”发起。

Not only that, cctv news reports, local time on january 5 at 5 a.m., kenya's northeastern coast of u.s. military joint base in kenya, armed terrorist attacks, near the base explosion and gun fighting. Intermittent crossfire continued until around 8 a.m. local time. The Kenyan government said the attack was carried out by the Somali extremist group Al-Shabaab.

  在此期间,美国总统特朗普连发数条推特对伊朗进行警告和威胁。特朗普称,美国拒绝任何威胁,伊朗若袭击任何美方人员或设施,美方将对伊朗52个目标实施“迅速和猛烈”打击。

In the meantime, US President Donald Trump has sent several tweets warning and threatening Iran. Trump said the United States rejected any threat and that if Iran attacked any American personnel or facilities, the United States would carry out a \"quick and violent\" strike against Iran's 52 targets.

  据美国媒体报道,美方之所以选择52个目标是因为这代表着当年德黑兰人质危机中被伊朗方面扣押的52名美驻伊使馆人员。特朗普称其中一些目标对伊朗有重要意义。

U.S. media reported that the U.S. chose 52 targets because it represented 52 U.S. embassy personnel detained by Iran during the Tehran hostage crisis. Trump says some of these targets are important to Iran.

  1月3日当天,国际油价一度暴涨逾4%,具有避险属性的黄金大幅走高,美股全线下跌,恐慌指数(VIX)盘中飙涨近30%。

International oil prices soared more than 4 per cent on January 3, with risk-averse gold soaring, U.S. stocks all down and the panic index soaring nearly 30 per cent in intraday trading.

  瑞银集团财富管理全球首席投资官马克·黑费尔表示,如果中东形势继续恶化,石油供应中断,会使原油价格短期内大幅上涨,给经济和金融市场带来冲击。不过,国际石油市场目前产能充足,2020年上半年布伦特原油期货价格要维持在每桶70美元上方比较困难。地缘政治事件本质上不可预测,此前此类事件对市场大范围的影响均比较短暂。

If the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate and oil supply is disrupted, it could send crude oil prices sharply higher in the short term, hitting economic and financial markets, said Mark Heifer, global chief investment officer for wealth management at UBS. However, the international oil market is now well-stocked, and Brent crude oil futures are struggling to stay above $70 a barrel in the first half of 2020. Geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, after a relatively short-lived impact on the broader market.

  加拿大皇家银行资本市场部门表示,美伊紧张局势加剧,伊拉克今年面临着石油供应中断的风险,若美伊紧张局势进一步升级,美油可能会挑战近期高点美元/桶。

The Royal Bank of Canada's capital markets division said U.S.-Iranian tensions were rising and Iraq was at risk of an oil supply outage this year, with U.S. oil likely to challenge recent highs in the U.S. dollar\/barrel if tensions escalate further.

  证券策略团队表示,黄金作为一种特殊的大宗商品,具有商品、货币和投资避险的多重属性。全球地缘政治风险和逆全球化过程在不断上升,风险因素也驱动黄金价格上行。建议投资者在当前加配黄金,把握海外市场降息和地缘政治风险升温带来的投资机会。

The securities strategy team said gold as a special commodity has multiple attributes of commodity, currency and investment risk avoidance. Global geopolitical risks and reverse globalization are rising, and risk factors are driving gold prices up. Investors are advised to add gold to the current market to grasp the overseas market interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks brought by the investment opportunities.

  渤海证券指出,如果地缘事件长期化,将对美元和黄金价格产生重要影响。一方面从避险角度拉低美元指数,抬升黄金价格中枢;另一方面,由通胀路径抬升美国及全球通胀率,降低美国及全球实际利率,进一步拉动黄金价格上涨。

Bohai Securities points out that if geopolitical events are prolonged, they will have an important impact on the dollar and gold prices. On the one hand, lowering the dollar index from a risk-averse perspective to lift the gold price center, on the other hand, inflation path to lift the U.S. and global inflation rate, lower U.S. and global real interest rates, further driving the rise in gold prices.

  景顺全球市场策略主管列维特在研报中指出,目前看,短期市场波动依然受到地缘政治不确定性驱动。不过,从历史经验看,地缘政治事件并不是结束经济或者股市周期的主要因素,现阶段市场对经济前景和全球普遍宽松的货币政策预期令股票相对于债券仍具有吸引力的情况并未改变。

For now, short-term market volatility remains driven by geopolitical uncertainty, according to mr. levitt, head of global market strategy at jingshun. Historically, however, geopolitical events have not been a major factor in ending the economic or stock-market cycle, and the current market's appeal to economic prospects and global expectations of generally loose monetary policy have not changed.

  富时罗素全球市场研究部董事总经理AlecYoung表示,人们对国际形势和全球增长的预期有所提高,如果预期无法实现,就会产生抛售压力。对于市场而言,短暂停止涨势消化宏观消息,再启动新一轮行情是最可能的结果。

Alec Young, managing director of global market research at FTSE's Russell, said expectations of the international situation and global growth had improved and that if expectations were not met, there would be selling pressure. For the market, briefly stop the rally to digest macro news, and start a new market is the most likely outcome.

  川财证券研究所所长陈雳表示,中东局势紧张叠加美股下跌将推升市场避险情绪,预计A股能源和黄金相关板块将出现上行,其持续时间和幅度,视美伊冲突事件的最终演变而定。

Chen Bao, director of Chuancai Securities Research Institute, said that the tensions in the Middle East combined with US stocks will boost the market hedging sentiment, and that A-share energy and gold-related sectors are expected to rise, depending on the final evolution of the U.S. conflict.

  国金机械军工团队表示,如果中东局势推动油价大涨,会加速电动汽车发展。暂不考虑油价大幅波动,仍预计2020年为“全球电动化大年”,欧洲汽车巨头加大电动车产业化。中国锂电设备领先全球,具有全球竞争力,竞争格局相对较好。另外,国防军工将成为短期内的偏主题投资,短期关注出口型企业;中期仍聚焦主战装备、关注军工改革。

If the situation in the Middle East pushes up oil prices, it will accelerate the development of electric vehicles, the national machinery military team said. Excluding sharp fluctuations in oil prices for the time being, it is still expected to be a \"global electric year \"in 2020, with European auto giants ramping up the industrialization of electric vehicles. China's lithium electricity equipment is leading the world, with global competitiveness and relatively good competition pattern. In addition, defense military industry will become a short-term investment in the theme, short-term focus on export-oriented enterprises; the medium-term still focus on the main war equipment, focus on military reform.

  新时代证券首席经济学家潘向东认为,地缘政治的潜在扰动可能短期降低市场的风险偏好,令海外市场避险情绪升温,需要持续关注后续发展,如果美伊冲突不大幅升级,预计市场将维持有限的波动。A股在降准强化经济见底的预期下,仍有望延续春季行情。

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist at New Age Securities, said potential geopolitical disturbances could reduce risk appetite in the short term, heating up risk-averse sentiment in overseas markets and requiring continued attention to follow-up developments, with limited volatility expected if the US-Iranian conflict does not escalate significantly. A-shares in the economic bottom-down under the expectations, is still expected to continue the spring market.


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