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2020-01-08 01:55   来源:  www.eoto-online.com   评论:0 点击:



After nearly two days of fermentation, the United States and Iraq conflict escalated again! The U.S. embassy and U.S. military base, located in the \"Green Zone\" of downtown Baghdad and north of Baghdad, were shelled late on Thursday, Xinhua reported. A joint U.S. military base in Kenya was attacked by al-Shabab at 5 a.m. local time on January 5, according to CCTV news.


The US-Iranian conflict has intensified, tensions in the Middle East have escalated and global financial markets have been hit. This week the global stock market, crude oil, gold and other major assets will be how to deduce? on the geometry of A strand? The major agencies have rushed to their analysis.


On the morning of January 3, Iraq's Baghdad International Airport was attacked by three rockets that killed Qassim Suleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard unit, the Al-Quds Brigade, Xinhua reported. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the attack on Suleimani, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement.


According to xinhua news agency, iraqi capital baghdad's \"green zone\" and other places and a base north of baghdad in the u. s. troops in the night of 4 local time was shell attack, but did not cause casualties. Located in central Baghdad, the Green Zone is home to Iraqi government agencies and the U.S. and British embassies in Iraq; the Baird Air Force Base is located about 80 kilometers north of Baghdad with U.S. troops.


Not only that, cctv news reports, local time on january 5 at 5 a.m., kenya's northeastern coast of u.s. military joint base in kenya, armed terrorist attacks, near the base explosion and gun fighting. Intermittent crossfire continued until around 8 a.m. local time. The Kenyan government said the attack was carried out by the Somali extremist group Al-Shabaab.


In the meantime, US President Donald Trump has sent several tweets warning and threatening Iran. Trump said the United States rejected any threat and that if Iran attacked any American personnel or facilities, the United States would carry out a \"quick and violent\" strike against Iran's 52 targets.


U.S. media reported that the U.S. chose 52 targets because it represented 52 U.S. embassy personnel detained by Iran during the Tehran hostage crisis. Trump says some of these targets are important to Iran.


International oil prices soared more than 4 per cent on January 3, with risk-averse gold soaring, U.S. stocks all down and the panic index soaring nearly 30 per cent in intraday trading.


If the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate and oil supply is disrupted, it could send crude oil prices sharply higher in the short term, hitting economic and financial markets, said Mark Heifer, global chief investment officer for wealth management at UBS. However, the international oil market is now well-stocked, and Brent crude oil futures are struggling to stay above $70 a barrel in the first half of 2020. Geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, after a relatively short-lived impact on the broader market.


The Royal Bank of Canada's capital markets division said U.S.-Iranian tensions were rising and Iraq was at risk of an oil supply outage this year, with U.S. oil likely to challenge recent highs in the U.S. dollar\/barrel if tensions escalate further.


The securities strategy team said gold as a special commodity has multiple attributes of commodity, currency and investment risk avoidance. Global geopolitical risks and reverse globalization are rising, and risk factors are driving gold prices up. Investors are advised to add gold to the current market to grasp the overseas market interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks brought by the investment opportunities.


Bohai Securities points out that if geopolitical events are prolonged, they will have an important impact on the dollar and gold prices. On the one hand, lowering the dollar index from a risk-averse perspective to lift the gold price center, on the other hand, inflation path to lift the U.S. and global inflation rate, lower U.S. and global real interest rates, further driving the rise in gold prices.


For now, short-term market volatility remains driven by geopolitical uncertainty, according to mr. levitt, head of global market strategy at jingshun. Historically, however, geopolitical events have not been a major factor in ending the economic or stock-market cycle, and the current market's appeal to economic prospects and global expectations of generally loose monetary policy have not changed.


Alec Young, managing director of global market research at FTSE's Russell, said expectations of the international situation and global growth had improved and that if expectations were not met, there would be selling pressure. For the market, briefly stop the rally to digest macro news, and start a new market is the most likely outcome.


Chen Bao, director of Chuancai Securities Research Institute, said that the tensions in the Middle East combined with US stocks will boost the market hedging sentiment, and that A-share energy and gold-related sectors are expected to rise, depending on the final evolution of the U.S. conflict.


If the situation in the Middle East pushes up oil prices, it will accelerate the development of electric vehicles, the national machinery military team said. Excluding sharp fluctuations in oil prices for the time being, it is still expected to be a \"global electric year \"in 2020, with European auto giants ramping up the industrialization of electric vehicles. China's lithium electricity equipment is leading the world, with global competitiveness and relatively good competition pattern. In addition, defense military industry will become a short-term investment in the theme, short-term focus on export-oriented enterprises; the medium-term still focus on the main war equipment, focus on military reform.


Pan Xiangdong, chief economist at New Age Securities, said potential geopolitical disturbances could reduce risk appetite in the short term, heating up risk-averse sentiment in overseas markets and requiring continued attention to follow-up developments, with limited volatility expected if the US-Iranian conflict does not escalate significantly. A-shares in the economic bottom-down under the expectations, is still expected to continue the spring market.


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